Peace region at increased risk of economic disruption amid green energy transition, says IRPP

FORT ST. JOHN, B.C. — A new report from the Institute for Research on Public Policy (IRPP) says the Peace region is one of the most at-risk communities for disruptions during the green energy transition.

The report, called the “Community Transformations Project,” assesses regions all across Canada for their susceptibility to workforce disruption over the coming decades, as efforts to reduce greenhouse gas emissions lead to economic change.

“By identifying the communities that are susceptible to workforce disruption, governments can collaborate with people who live and work in the communities to provide targeted support that builds resilience and optimism in the face of uncertainty,” the report’s summary reads.

IRPP analysts determined which communities are at risk through three metrics: the proportion of the local population employed in “emission-intensive” sectors, the amount of emissions from large facilities compared to the size of the community, and the proportion of employment in sectors affected by the global market that are expected to be impacted by emission reduction efforts.

Overall, the Peace region is considered to be in the top five per cent of communities in the country in terms of the second metric, which the report calls “facility susceptibility,” and the third metric, called “market susceptibility.”

The region also scored above the national average in the first metric, called “intensity susceptibility” in the report. 

The main reasons for the region’s high scores are the amount of oil and gas extraction that occurs locally, making up more than 83 per cent of its total emissions, and the fact that nearly ten per cent of the region’s workforce has jobs related to oil and gas extraction.

The Northern Rockies, meanwhile, scored above the national average in intensity susceptibility, in the top ten per cent for market susceptibility, and in the top five per cent in facility susceptibility.

According to the IRPP, the data for the report was sourced from the 2021 census. 

The report identified that communities that scored higher in its metrics are generally smaller, more remote, and less economically diverse than those that scored lower. 

It also claims 90 per cent of Canadians live in communities that are “not particularly susceptible” to disruption.

The IRPP says solutions and opportunities exist for more susceptible communities, but governments need to know where and how to focus their efforts.

“By identifying which communities are susceptible to workforce disruption, we can take steps to empower workers and communities and help them reduce their susceptibility and capture new opportunities,” an infographic from the IRPP reads.

To view the full report, visit the IRPP website.