Conservative Party of BC jumps ahead of BC United in Peace River: 338Canada projection

FORT ST. JOHN, B.C. — The Conservative Party of BC has jumped in front of BC United in the Peace River ridings, according to a recent 338Canada projection.

Peace River North MLA Dan Davies and Peace River South MLA Mike Bernier both believe one of the main reasons the Conservatives are ahead in recent projections across the province is the British Columbia Liberal Party’s name change to BC United.

“We just changed our party name here 14 months ago, so that’s fairly new. We have work to do to get our name out there,” said Davies.

Another reason Davies brought up was the provincial party riding the wave created by Pierre Poilievre and the federal Conservatives.

“Just picture this: you get a phone call as Joe Blow out there, and it’s a quick spot call,’ Hey, If an election is held today, would you vote BC United, the BC Conservatives, or the BC NDP?’ ‘Well, I don’t know the United yet. The NDP, definitely no. I’m a Conservative. Pierre is doing awesome,'” said Davies, highlighting that the election is a year away.

As of October 5th, it was projected that 54 per cent of voters want the Conservative Party of BC to represent them in Peace River North, compared to 36 per cent for BC United.

Since the last projection, the Conservative Party saw an 11 per cent boost, and BC United saw a 10 per cent drop.

Peace River South voters are projected to also lean toward the Conservative Party at 50 per cent, compared to 32 per cent for BC United.

The Conservative Party saw a 12 per cent increase since the last projection, and BC United saw a 10 per cent decrease.

According to 338Canada, the projection is calculated using a mostly proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by professional pollsters. 

“This is not a poll but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data,” according to 338Canada’s website.

Polls released by other research firms have shown the Conservatives take the place of BC United. In a Mainstreet survey released in September, the B.C. NDP led with a 30 per cent approval, followed by BC Conservatives at 21 per cent, BC United at 18 per cent and BC Greens at eight per cent.

From August 29th to 31st, Mainstreet polled 601 adults using robocalls to get the results.

Bernier says BC United Leader Kevin Falcon has been adamant that the only polls that really matter are on election day.

“Come next election, it’s going to be either Kevin Falcon or David Eby as the next premier of the province,” said Bernier

“We have the best chance of beating the NDP in the next election. It’s just our job to make sure people understand who we are and what we stand for.”

If an election were held today, 338Canada calculates that the Conservative Party has a 97 per cent chance of winning both ridings.

“These projections are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations,” said 338Canada.

At the last provincial election in 2020, BC United received 51.2 per cent of the Peace River South vote, and the Conservative Party had 30.5 per cent of the vote.

In 2017, BC United had 76 per cent of the vote, while the Conservative Party had no votes.

As for Peace River North, BC United had 55.8 per cent of the vote in 2020, and the Conservative Party had 34.3 per cent.

BC United had 66.3 per cent of the vote in 2017, while the Conservative Party had no votes.

Both MLAs say BC United, a conservative-minded party, has the best chance of beating the NDP at the next election.

“We need to make sure that we are recognized as the alternative to the NDP. That is going to, again, take the province out of the train wreck that we are currently in.”

The popular vote in both ridings started dropping for BC United around August, a couple of months after John Rustad was acclaimed leader of the Conservative Party of B.C.

Since taking on the leadership role in March, Rustad has also made a couple of stops in Fort St. John.

Davies has been the Peace River North MLA since 2017 and is the Shadow Minister for Social Development and Poverty Reduction.

He previously served as the Official Opposition critic for Education and was a Member of the Select Standing Committees on Education and Health.

Bernier was elected MLA for Peace River South in 2013, 2017, and 2020 and is currently the Shadow Minister for Forests.

To learn more about the 338Canada methodology, click here.