(Opinion) Evan Saugstad:  Four more years of the same old, or something new?

Will Canada go to bed happy and smelling the roses, or will we be sad and like where I grew up in the Bella Coola valley, smelling that distinctive odour of full-bloom skunk cabbage* wafting through the bedroom window at this time of year?

Or, to put things more succinctly, the day after the federal election 2025 (April 29^th), will we wake up with the realization that we have four more years of the same old government doing the same old things? Or will we be blessed with a new set of politicians having four years to correct some of the mess and destruction that Justin and his Liberals have wrought on Canada for almost a decade?  For the record, no one can possibly fix Canada in four years, they can only start the process.  

Writing about federal elections for the local audience in northeast BC is like preaching to the choir.  No matter what I say, do or reference, nothing will change.  Moments after the polls close on April 28^th, the election night pundits will be calling a win for the Conservatives in our riding; Prince George – Peace River – Northern Rockies.  We are as Conservative as it gets and I think the likelihood of us switching to Liberal has about the same odds as David Eby balancing BC’s budget.

As I write this, we have the incumbent Conservative Bob Zimmer, Cory Longley for the NDP, David Watson of the People’s Party of Canada, and Mary Forbes of the Green Party of Canada.  No Liberal has yet to put their name forward.  Not sure there will be one, unless someone offers to pay for their time.  

Nevertheless, I watch with interest and hope the rest of Canada sees what I and my fellow citizens see: that fiscal responsibility, crime and punishment, affordability, jobs, the economy and healthcare all matter.

This election should be all about what Canada has become, the mess the Liberals have left our country in and who is best to fix it, as none of our politicians are going to change Donald one iota.  The Liberals are distracting Canadians from all that ails our country. If you replace “tariff” with “Covid”, don’t things sound much the same as last (2021) election?

Do you wonder why car tariffs are an ‘emergency’ as they affect upper Canada (southern Ontario), yet 100 per cent tariffs by China on canola oil, canola meal and peas, 25 per cent on pork, fish and seafood products for rural Canada doesn’t even make a mention?   

I also follow what the polls are saying and like many I am amazed, or myself dismayed, at what has happened over the past couple of months.

Conservative numbers are down, Liberals are up and the NDP are being obliterated.  Like many, I often wonder just how correct these “new” polls are, so I check to ensure Canada isn’t being force-fed some imaginary numbers.  

Although some polls are heavily biased and do not reflect reality, in aggregate, they do reflect the beliefs of the day.  If you would like a good summation on how polling works or doesn’t, try reading this National Post article by Donna Kennedy-Glans. 

The author writes: “‘Going from one poll to another to another to another is like driving on a street without shock suspensions; it’s very noisy,’ says Philippe Fournier, the creator of 338Canada, an independent, apolitical poll aggregator and analyst known for sticking to the math and letting the numbers speak without spin. 

“‘I wrote a model that incorporates all this (polling) data, adds it up with demographic data,’ he explains, ‘and I try to project odds of winning in each riding, and with that, odds of winning an election.’” 

“338Canada’s stats are exceptional: Philippe’s model has covered 18 general elections in Canada, nailing the winner in 89.3 per cent of the electoral districts projected.”

Another poll now shows more ‘boomers’ support the Liberals than in the younger generations, which is a departure from past elections when the older generations used to be more Conservative.

In the National Post on March 27^th, Tristen Hopper wrote: “In a near-unprecedented phenomenon for any Western democracy, the Canadian election is shaping up into a battle between young people who want a Conservative government, and seniors who want to retain a progressive status quo…A Leger poll released Tuesday found that a recent surge in support for Liberal Leader Mark Carney is being driven largely by seniors — and that if the election was decided solely by younger voters it would be an easy Conservative victory.”

The good news is that we are in the early stages of the elections and there is still time for Canada’s big city residents’ current love affair with Liberal leader Carney to change. 

It’s easy to see why Liberals and NDP supporters have got sucked in to believing anyone is better than former PM Justin and yet lost on them is the reality that it is like a losing football team replacing their quarterback while leaving the coaches and the rest of the team virtually the same and expecting this will bring about the change their team (Canada) so desperately needs.

Poilievre and the Conservatives have a big hurdle to overcome as it seems like Carney and the Liberals are copying many of the Conservatives’ platforms to sound more like what Canada needs, in such things as reducing the carbon tax, elimination of the GST on new homes, reducing taxes on low-income earners, more pipeline construction, reducing government waste, conducting efficiency reviews of government programs and reducing government spending. 

Problem is with the Liberal’s commitment with their newfound platform and given their track record, tI ask will they do what they say?  Or will they just revert back to the same old, same old as they have done for years?

Although the Liberals say what many Canadians want to hear, they will not necessarily deliver on what appears to be their promises.

Leaving the carbon tax on industry will not produce the savings our country needs to make living more affordable.  The gas/oil industry will pass on all those carbon taxes to the consumers, you and me. The Liberals’ commitments to keep Canada on track for ‘net zero’ will ensure western Canada keeps subsidizing the east and our economy keeps sputtering.

The Liberals say they want more pipelines but have not committed to eliminating tanker bans on the B.C. coast to allow for more exports and have committed to keeping emissions caps on all fossil fuel producers to ensure Canada does not increase production, thus negating the need for more pipelines – unless it is about stopping the flows to the U.S.

The Liberals talk big about the Conservatives being too aligned with Donald and U.S policies, but then say they will cut spending, reduce waste, conduct efficiency reviews and downsize government and spending, but just not now and not while we are in the Donald tariff “emergency”. (Doesn’t this one sound much the same as Donald?)

And for those who like Carney and the Liberals, consider some of what their platform says: 

“…Canada must invest $2 trillion by 2050—about $80 billion per year—to become carbon competitive and achieve Net Zero. However, investments in decarbonisation currently run between $10–20 billion annually.

Evan’s take: more carbon-first policies to come.

“Canada’s major investment opportunities include … the enormous opportunities to expand and modernize our energy infrastructure so that we are less dependent both on foreign suppliers and the United States as our main customer…Canada must invest to become a clean energy superpower in nuclear, hydro power, wind, hydrogen, battery storage and carbon capture.”

Evan’s take: notice all the mention of what Canada has an abundance of – oil and natural gas and coal.

“…will focus first on reining in wasteful and ineffective government spending, creating room for personal income tax cuts so that Canadians can keep more of their hard-earned money and better cope with the higher cost of living.  Now is the time for a more efficient and effective government—one that delivers better results while spending responsibly. By streamlining operations and reducing waste, we can ensure that all Canadians benefit from a focused, responsive and sustainable government.”

Evan – sounds very like MAGA to me.

All sounds good, but then like always, there is the fine print.  And if Liberal history tells us anything, it’s they have more fine print than one can possibly read or comprehend.

Evan.

If there is one thing Peace country voters can do, it is to keep beating on our southern and eastern friends and families that Canada needs much more than Carney and the Liberals can or are prepared to deliver.

A change is way overdue!
* Google AI: “Skunk cabbage is known for its strong, skunk-like odor, which helps attract pollinators like flies and beetles.”