Evan Saugstad: Oh, Canada! A point of view from a small town guy in rural Canada (part 2 as the Canadian takeover saga continues)

In Part 1 (Feb 14^th), I wrote about some of what is driving the U.S. to impose tariffs against everything Canadian.

As the saga continues, President Donald announced his next step to counteract what he sees as unfair trade practices levied against the U.S.  His next announcement was about matching every other country’s tariffs on U.S. products with a similar one of their own.  As part of the media Q&A afterwards, Donald again singled out Canada as being different than all other countries and went on his now-familiar spiel that Canada would be better off whistling Dixie as the 51^st state and subject to his wisdom and whims as our 1^st president, with maybe, just maybe, Justin being named as his favorite new governor.

Canadian premiers met with U.S. government officials in Washington on Feb 12^th, after which Premier Eby commented that the notion of Canada as a 51^st state was a “non-starter” and would not be considered as part of any negotiations. One U.S. official countered they did not agree; the annexation of Canada is very much on their table and Canada should take President Trump at face value.

So, what could this possibly mean for a Canadian response?

It was a bit of a shaky start when Justin responded to the threat of 25 per cent tariffs, which were a punishment for a porous Canada/U.S. border, fentanyl production and lack of controls on money laundering. Justin promised more money for border security and greater emphasis and dollars for combating fentanyl production and money laundering. Subsequently, Donald gave a 30-day reprieve while the U.S. reviews what was promised/committed.

It is whether Donald agrees, as in these matters, I believe he has essentially silenced his Republican cohorts in the House and Senate and they are forced to toe Donald’s line, afraid to speak up for what they might believe and/or understand.

Sorry Canada, but that was not the end of it, as those tariffs only applied to Donald’s border security issues.  This past week he announced tariffs are coming on steel and aluminum, and then more in the form of reciprocal tariffs, then even more as tariffs on imported cars, all yet to be determined. All of this is with the caveat that his evil neighbors to the north are the greatest threat to American sovereignty and as a result, will bear the biggest burden.

Canada’s response to these daily tariff babbles have been appropriate. Take Donald at face value for today, fully recognizing that tomorrow his face will have a different value, only to have him change faces once again the day following, and as time passes, rinse and repeat.

The strategy to maintain and advance diplomatic relationships with any U.S. politician who will listen, bombard the U.S. media with interviews and wait him out until the threats are finalized and signed off as fact before responding is the correct response and will allow time for Canada to adequately assess and coordinate a measured response.

Having all premiers go to Washington to advocate for Canada was a positive step.  With Justin essentially neutered within our government and the Liberal Party of Canada deep into election rhetoric, the combined brain power of our premiers is needed to keep Canada on track and not let the usual Ontario and Quebec dominance overshadow what is important for all of Canada.

So far so good, but just wait until President Trump announces what he really wants and puts it into writing, then we will see just how cohesive Canada has become and truly is.

Pundits, business leaders and economists say Canada’s auto manufacturing sector is in trouble if Donald follows through with his threats of 25 per cent tariffs (or in Canada’s case, substantially more). Given that cars to Ontario is what oil is to Alberta and that Premier Doug Ford and Ontario are currently in election mode, the rest of Canada cannot afford to let Premier Ford lead on this file as I believe he will sell out the rest of Canada to keep his province as the centre of the Canadian universe.  I believe the same for Quebec; they will support anything that favours Quebec and if what they want by chance helps Canada – great. If it doesn’t – too bad for the rest.

Since this traffic and trade war started, a significant shift has occurred in Canadian attitude, sentiment and patriotism.  It has only taken a couple of weeks and we are now refocusing on our efforts of what Canada and Canadians can do to benefit Canada and turn our trade reliance with the U.S. to one that is more balanced with the rest of the world and inter-provincially. 

The remaking of Canada as a profitable and industrious trading nation is the positive outcome we all need, and for that, we will eventually thank Donald. 

Has been much talk about reducing inter-provincial trade barriers. Only time will tell if Ontario will be able to sell wine in B.C. and vice versa, or if the government of Canada can declare our own emergency and approve pipelines to be built to our east and west coasts, or who sets the standards for trades and professional designations that currently vary province by province.

More of that to come in Part 3.

As I close this out, Happy 60^th anniversary for Canada Flag day on Feb 15^th.  Although some may disagree or dispute this assertion, the Canadian flag with its red maple leaf is one of the most regionalized symbols in the world, and we need to keep it that way.  Just because Donald can bluster, pontificate, obfuscate, denigrate and smack anyone who gets in his way or has the misfortune to become beholden to him, does not mean that Canada needs to do or act the same way.

In the long run, taking the high road always wins, even if it gets a bit bumpy along the way.

Evan