VICTORIA, B.C. – Provincial Health Officer Dr. Bonnie Henry released COVID-19 data modeling Thursday, which shows B.C. could hit 2,000 cases a day if interactions aren’t limited.

According to data compiled by the BC CDC, 7-day average daily case counts by age group show an increase in cases in the 19 to 39 age group, but a decrease in cases among the 80+ age group since mid-march.

Comparing the data to the vaccination progress shows the rollout of immunizations among 80+ increasing sharply around the same time case counts decreased.

Data shows COVID-19 transmission in schools reflects community transmission, something Dr. Henry indicates is a sign that safety measures in schools are working.

When transmission occurs in a school, it is limited to between one and two additional cases. There were no deaths among school-aged children due to COVID-19.

Less than 1 in 200 children with COVID-19 were hospitalized, which is 10 times lower than the B.C. average of adults 19 and older.

Figures on dynamic compartmental modeling suggest British Columbia could be headed for upwards of 2,000 new cases a day if rates of infectious contact remain high.

The BC CDC encourages all residents to share their experience with the COVID-19 pandemic after one year by completing a survey to help inform recovery and re-opening. As of April 13th, 85,064 surveys have been completed.

To see the full modeling document, go to the BC CDC website.