Modelling released Monday suggests Ontario has reached the peak of the first wave of the novel coronavirus outbreak, sparking optimism that the rest of Canada could see similar results in the coming weeks.

Projections released in early April had initially predicted Ontario could see roughly 80,000 cases and 1,600 COVID-19 deaths by April 30.

But, health officials said on Monday that the cumulative infections for the span of the outbreak will likely be “substantially lower,” at around 20,000.

Earlier models had also predicted the first wave of the virus would peak in May, but officials say that thanks to public health interventions, including widespread adherence to physical distancing, the peak has come sooner.

By Tuesday morning, there were 11,735 confirmed cases of COVID-19 in Ontario, with 622 reported deaths.

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Here’s a closer look at the modelling and what Ontario’s progress would mean for the rest of Canada.

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