Here’s how the COVID-19 curve could look with social distancing, testing

As novel coronavirus continues to spread world wide, researchers have begun modelling how the pandemic could look in Canada over the long-term.

Researchers at the University of Toronto’s Dalla Lana school of public health modelled how the COVID-19 outbreak would look in Ontario with restrictive measures in place to flatten the curve, compared with what might happen without those measures.

Using the number of patients requiring treatment by intensive care units (ICU) as a metric, they forecast how the epidemic could look over a two-year time period.

READ MORE: Coronavirus — How long can Canadians expect to be social distancing?

The study found that with limited testing and restrictive measures, approximately 56 per cent of the province’s population would be infected over the course of the epidemic.

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However, they said all interventions, including physical distancing and enhanced detection of cases, were projected to delay and reduce the height of the epidemic’s peak.

Restrictive social distancing was estimated to have the greatest effect.

2:14Physical distancing is different depending on where you live

Physical distancing is different depending on where you live

“Without significant social distancing or a combination of moderate social distancing with enhanced case finding, we project that ICU resources would be overwhelmed,” the paper reads.


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