More Wet Weather Headed Our Way?

FORT ST. JOHN, B.C. – Records at the local airport Environment Canada weather station, show June to be the second heaviest rainfall and precipitation month of year in this area, with an average of 65.6 mm.

However, even if the Weather Network’s low end forecast is accurate the amounts to be posted in the four day period beginning tomorrow will exceed those totals.

In fact, it is calling for more than half of the norm, 35 to 45 mm on Thursday alone, to be preceded by 15 mm tomorrow and followed by 10 to 15 more on Friday and 20 more on Saturday.

So that makes that low end four day estimate 80 mm and the high end prediction a hip-wader-sounding 95 mm. If you add on a forecast of 10 to 15 mm on Sunday and Monday, the six day projections become a low end 95 and high end 110, which is more than four inches.

Now before writing off the possibility of that kind of rainfall as an impossibility consider again what happened just five years ago this month, when the airport station recorded a June 2011 precipitation total of 176.5 mm, including 114.9 mm of rain in three days, the 23rd, 24th and 25th of the month.

Environment Canada meteorologist Lisa Caldwell, isn’t ready yet to commit to anything close to that occurring again, nor is she ready to embrace the Weather Network numbers. While she does concur the current raw model forecast data looks pretty wild, she also cautions about reading too much into that data.

So we’ll start by focusing only on tomorrow and Thursday and note the June 8th and 9th rainfall and precipitation records are 36 point eight and 30 point two millimeters and they were set in 1977 and 1973.