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The low pressure is expected to cause moisture to wrap around through Alberta and create an easterly flow pattern into the Rocky Mountains. These situations create upslope conditions on the eastern slopes of the Rocky Mountains and create high rainfall rates on areas that are typically in the rain shadow of the Rocky Mountains.

This system is expected to deliver significant rain through the Northern Rocky Mountains, Peace region and spilling into the upper Fraser watershed Tuesday night and through Wednesday. Forecasted rainfall amounts up to 80 mm are expected in the Upper Fraser Watershed, Peace Region and Northern Rockies, with higher rates possible on higher terrain towards the eastern slopes.

Rivers are expected to see rapid rises in these areas on Wednesday and into Thursday in response to heavy rainfall. The current 5-day forecast for the Fraser River at South Fort George is forecasting river levels to approach flood stage by Thursday or Friday, and reach approximately 9.9 m at South Fort George by Saturday.

Precipitation forecasts are similar to observed precipitation during flood events that occurred in the Peace region in 2002 and 2011. Flood conditions are expected throughout the Peace Region and Northern Rockies, including the Pine, Halfway, Kiskatinaw, Moberly, Sikanni Chief, and Muskwa Rivers, as well as other tributary river systems throughout the area. In addition to communities within the area, flood conditions through the region may pose a hazard to infrastructure such as roads and bridges.

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