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A large scale upper low pressure system is currently developing across the Western United States and contains significant moisture. This system is expected to deliver significant rain through the Rocky Mountains of the North Thompson River, Upper Fraser watershed and Northern Rockies in the Peace region on Tuesday into Wednesday. Forecasted rainfall amounts over the next 2 to 3 days are in the 30 to 70 mm range, with the potential for higher amounts locally.

In the North Thompson, Upper Fraser and Peace region, rivers are expected to begin rising later than southern BC, with the onset of rise starting later Tuesday and into Wednesday, and peak levels expected on Thursday or into Friday. The current 5‐day forecast for the Fraser River at South Fort George is forecasting river levels to approach flood stage by Thursday or Friday. The timing and amount of rise in rivers across the region will depend on the amount of rain that falls. At this stage there is still uncertainty over the overall amounts of rain that will fall, and the locations which will experience the heaviest rainfall. As a result, river level forecasts are expected to change over the next several days as weather modelling and weather observations continue to track the progress of this weather event. Significant snow pack is still present in the mid to upper elevations (>800‐1000 m) throughout the region, and while temperatures are expected to be cooler through this event, ongoing snowmelt is an additional factor.
 

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