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Overall, the report suggests Canadians will continue to have enough energy supply, with growth in emerging fuels and technoligies.

The high level of growth is attributed to the emergence of unconventional production as the dominant source of supply growth. That includes the expected increased oil sands production, oil-directed drilling and hydraulic fracturing, and shale gas development in B.C. and Alberta. As many shale gas plays in Alberta are still included in the conventional category, the report says with further development those could increase future projections.

The report also estimates that energy demand growth will slow down. According to the NEB, that demand grew 1.4 per cent per year from 1990 to 2008, but will slow to 1.3 per cent per year over the projection period. The reasons for the decline include slowing population growth, population growth, higher energy prices, slowed down economic growth and enhanced efficiency and conservation programs.

Lastly, the report predicts that changes in supply and demand will impact trade and infrastructure. Oil sands production and growing petroleum product demand is expected to more than triple the net crude oil able to be exported. In addition, Canada’s growing demand for natural gas will reduce the natural gas available for export to other countries.

The findings of the report are based on consultations held across the country last spring, as well as analysis by the NEB.

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